FNUS72 KMHX 210805 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR STUMPY POINT...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 405 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... S WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY NOON AND BECOME SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE BURN AREA. THIS IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES IS SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORING WILL LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S PERCENTILE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 23 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).............86 74 68 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE TEMP................51 62 69 RH..................86 62 54 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 10G15 S 16G25 SW 21G30 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 18 TO 23 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).............68 69 76 78 WEATHER COV......... SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................65 60 57 57 RH..................60 75 86 86 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 18G28 SW 17G23 SW 17G22 W 17G20 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 21 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............74 72 68 62 57 63 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................56 57 59 62 63 63 RH..................90 86 78 70 65 65 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 15 W 15 NW 16 N 15 N 14 NE 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 20 25 20 20 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...LONKA REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110321.STUMP.02/MHX