FNUS73 KPAH 211248 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SMITH...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 748 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION... INCREASING TO 2400-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4100-5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 69 71 73 75 76 77 76 75 RH..............52 48 42 39 39 39 43 48 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 2.4 4.2 5.6 5.9 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 17 15 14 14 14 15 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 67 64 62 60 58 RH..............56 65 72 75 79 83 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 700 100 300 300 200 TRANSPORT WIND..S 15 S 10 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 3 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76. RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 65 72 75 RH..............86 73 55 50 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 9G15 S 11G25 S 12G30 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1500 2600 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 SW 24 SW 25 SW 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...YORK REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110321.SMITH.01/PAH