FNUS73 KPAH 221205 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ASHBY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 705 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOWER HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 33 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 44 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............60 63 66 69 72 74 75 76 77 77 76 RH..............78 72 65 61 55 51 50 48 47 47 46 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 25 25 26 29 31 33 37 40 44 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 46 TO 55 MPH INCREASING TO 48 TO 56 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 69 67 65 63 61 RH..............50 59 63 68 75 81 20 FT WIND......S 9 S 9 S 9 S 8 SW 9 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 2800 1900 1200 1000 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 46 SW 52 SW 55 SW 56 SW 54 SW 48 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35 TO 41 MPH BECOMING WEST 23 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 33 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 66 70 72 RH..............81 68 59 41 20 FT WIND......SW 9G20 SW 10G30 W 11G30 W 12G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 2700 3500 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 41 SW 31 W 23 W 28 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 6 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110322.ASHBY.01/PAH