FNUS73 KPAH 221246 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR COTHAM 3 BURN...U S FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 746 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOWER HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 36 MPH INCREASING TO 40 TO 47 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 67 69 71 72 73 73 73 72 RH..............70 65 61 59 57 55 55 55 57 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 30 30 30 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 28 30 32 36 40 44 47 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...TIM PERREN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110322.COTHA.01/PAH