FNUS73 KPAH 221422 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SMITH...USFWS, CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 922 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOWER HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 46 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............69 72 73 74 75 76 75 74 RH..............61 55 53 51 50 48 50 51 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 29 31 35 38 43 46 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1200 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 45 TO 54 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 43 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 67 64 62 60 59 RH..............55 65 73 78 84 87 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 25 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3400 2800 1900 1200 800 800 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 48 SW 52 SW 54 SW 53 SW 49 SW 45 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1800-2400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 31 TO 39 MPH DECREASING TO 21 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 33 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............58 65 70 72 RH..............90 68 51 38 20 FT WIND......SW 8G20 SW 9G25 W 11G30 W 13G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 3200 4600 3100 TRANSPORT WIND..W 39 W 28 W 21 W 28 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110322.SMITH.01/PAH