FNUS73 KPAH 221430 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC PERKINS TRACT...USDA FOREST SERVICE LBL NRA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 930 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 CDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOWER HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 79. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 33 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............61 64 67 70 73 75 76 77 78 78 76 RH..............75 67 61 57 51 48 46 47 45 45 46 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 25 25 26 29 31 33 37 39 43 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 46 TO 55 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 46 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 70 67 65 63 61 RH..............50 57 63 68 72 81 20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 SW 9 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1700 1400 1300 1200 1200 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 46 SW 51 SW 55 SW 56 SW 54 SW 49 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 36 TO 43 MPH BECOMING WEST 25 TO 33 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 66 70 72 RH..............81 68 61 42 20 FT WIND......SW 9G20 SW 10G30 W 12G30 W 12G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 2700 3400 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 43 SW 32 SW 25 W 29 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...REGINA ROBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110322.TNCPE.01/PAH