FNUS72 KFFC 230956
FWSFFC

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOUNT JOY 20110322...USDA FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY WITH INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING THE FIRE SITE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES (60%) WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH 40 MPH
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT AS IT WILL VARY
WIDELY BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 24 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........77     77     77     72     72
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............58     65     69     72     74
RH..............84     69     58     51     47
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 13  SW 14  SW 14  SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20     20     20
DISPERSION IDX..15     15     15     24     24
CWR.............30     30     30     60     60

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 22 MPH.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........72     59     59     59     55     55
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............74     69     60     55     52     49
RH..............46     52     72     86     90     91
20 FT WIND......SW 13  W 14   W 13   W 12   NW 10  NW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20     20     15     15
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      4      4
CWR.............60     60     60     60     20     20

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3800 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DEESE
REQUESTED BY...JEFF SCHARDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110323.MOUNT.01/FFC