FNUS75 KGJT 230300
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CROWN PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
900 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY. SMOKE DISPERSAL
WILL BE GOOD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY ALLOWING MIXING HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...HOWEVER A PORTION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE MAKING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 1000
                    AM MDT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN WEST
                    AT AROUND 10 MPH BY 100 PM MDT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (69600-69800 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 7000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-22 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT AROND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR DROPPING TO 11800 KNOT-FT IN THE LATE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (24000-27700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD (105000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...TRACY FIFAREK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110323.CROWN.01/GJT