FNUS72 KMHX 231528 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIFORD FARM...USFW NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1128 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1110 EDT ON MARCH 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND PULL THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL . TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............47 57 59 57 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................62 67 71 72 RH..................67 61 55 53 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 6 S 10 S 14 SW 16 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 20 25 30 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............60 71 92 97 91 66 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................71 67 65 63 61 60 RH..................55 63 70 75 81 80 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 16 SW 16 SW 18 W 17 W 15 W 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....30 25 25 25 20 20 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 4 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............50 48 45 37 51 51 WEATHER COV.........S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................59 58 59 61 61 61 RH..................77 77 72 65 58 51 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 13 W 12 W 18 NW 22 NW 22 N 20 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 25 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...DAIL REQUESTED BY...DONNIE HARRIS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110323.TWIFO.01/MHX