FNUS72 KMHX 241424 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL S BAY...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1024 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MARCH 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY NOON WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL BEFORE NOON...DECREASING TO 1500-2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............63 66 67 71 71 WEATHER COV.........SCH WEATHER TYPE........RW TEMP................60 59 58 57 55 RH..................60 57 57 57 59 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)15 13 13 13 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 TO 2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............70 70 70 69 66 61 58 55 56 51 42 33 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................54 52 51 49 48 46 44 43 42 41 41 41 RH..................59 61 61 61 60 63 65 67 67 67 67 67 20 FT WIND DIR......NE NE NE N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)12 12 12 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............23 10 2 4 8 12 15 19 21 24 29 35 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................41 41 42 45 47 49 50 51 52 52 52 51 RH..................64 64 55 49 47 44 42 41 39 39 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N NE N N N N N NE 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)12 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...BANDY REQUESTED BY...CHUCK CREDLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110324.BULLS.01/MHX