FNUS72 KMHX 241621 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR SR8 FIRE...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1221 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1133 EDT ON MARCH 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WILDFIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EARLY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WITH A HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE WILDFIRE AREA COULD BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT TO 8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 14 MPH...BECOMING WEST 13 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............9 13 15 16 18 23 31 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................69 71 72 73 73 73 71 RH..................45 39 35 31 29 26 26 20 FT WIND DIR......W NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)16 17 16 15 15 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 25 25 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39. MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 17 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............38 45 51 53 58 61 64 67 66 62 53 43 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................68 64 59 55 53 50 48 46 44 42 41 40 RH..................28 34 44 51 57 63 68 71 73 76 73 73 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW N N N N N N NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)13 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 1 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 21 21 20 20 25 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................40 41 50 57 61 60 RH..................70 65 48 38 35 37 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 9 N 9 NE 8 NE 5 N 2 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...BANDY REQUESTED BY...G CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110324.SR8FI.01/MHX