FNUS72 KMHX 250008 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR SR8 FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 808 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1934 EDT ON MARCH 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE BOUNDARY HAS NOW MOVED JUST WEST OF THE FIRE SITE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. RICHLANDS JUST GUSTED TO 19 KNOTS AND I EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION COULD TRY TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THAT IS ALSO WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 80-85% TOWARD DAWN. THERE ARE ARE 3 MAIN WEATHER FACTORS THAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS THAT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS AFTER THIS EVENINGS WINDS. THE FIRST 2 OCCUR FRIDAY WHEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY EARLY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE THIRD FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THAT A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE SITE BEGINNING MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS OF THE WEATHER MODELS INDICATES THAT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 2 PM SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END DURING SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH SEEM QUITE POSSIBLE OVER THE FIRE SITE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000-1400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).............45 58 63 69 69 62 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................68 59 50 46 42 41 RH..................40 50 61 68 70 69 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 12 NE 13 NE 8 NE 10 NE 10 N 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....18 20 15 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............59 54 48 40 34 37 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................41 42 50 58 61 60 RH..................68 60 47 37 34 37 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 8 N 8 N 8 N 7 SE 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...G CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110324.SR8FI.02/MHX