FNUS72 KMHX 242054 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL S BAY WILDLIFE BURN...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 454 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............40 34 35 44 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................49 51 52 51 RH..................45 42 41 44 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 6 N 5 SE 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 15 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............49 56 61 66 70 74 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................49 45 44 44 43 42 RH..................51 70 71 73 80 85 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 5 E 7 E 7 SE 7 SE 6 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-3200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 13 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............80 85 86 87 88 90 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP................42 43 47 50 53 53 RH..................86 85 80 75 71 69 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 3 N 5 N 7 N 9 NE 12 NE 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...CHUCK CREDLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110325.BULLS.01/MHX