FNUS73 KPAH 241122
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BALL MILL...MISSOURI DEPT CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 25.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY
COVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE ABOUT THIRTY DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
WILL YIELD MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FROST IN SOME PLACES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON OUR REGION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE QUAD STATE AREA.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RAIN COULD START MOVING INTO THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE...RAIN MAY NOT ACTUALLY BEGIN UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THESE RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........36 AT IGNITION...MAX 46.
RH..................74 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-2200 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2000-2400 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............33        38        44        46
RH..............82        70        62        62
20 FT WIND......E 3G5     SE 5G10   SE 5G10   E 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....300       1900      2400      2300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 13      SE 12     SE 16     SE 13
CWR.............20        40        40        30
HAINES INDEX....4         2         2         2

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...MATT BOWYER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110325.BALLM.01/PAH