FNUS72 KJAX 260930 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR ARABIA BAY...GA FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 530 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0509 EDT ON MARCH 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RH VALUES WILL BE NOT BE AS LOW AS THEY WERE ON FRIDAY BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED AROUND 75 IN THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RED FLAGS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE HIGHER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....74. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........10 22 25 25 55 58 WEATHER COV.....AREA AREA CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............50 51 64 75 82 83 RH..............93 94 65 49 41 40 20 FT WIND......VRB 1 S 1 SW 3 W 7 SW 10 SW 11 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 23 20 MIX HGT (FT)....600 1000 1200 3000 5000 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 6 SW 6 SW 13 SW 18 SW 18 DISPERSION INDX.2 7 8 48 77 77 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................2. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1300 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....7. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........57 51 51 51 44 44 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RN/FG RN/FG TEMP............81 74 70 67 65 64 RH..............47 64 77 86 92 98 20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10 SW 8 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4500 1300 1300 900 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 14 SW 14 SW 12 SW 10 SW 10 LVORI...........6 6 6 6 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.68 15 15 8 7 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 20 20 LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....68. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...TROY FLOYD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110326.ARABI.01/JAX