FNUS73 KPAH 301459 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR WHITE TRACT...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 959 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DESPITE LOW CLOUDS/INVERSION THIS MORNING...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE TO ACCEPTABLE LEVELS BY NOON...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SKY CONDITION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. AS FOR THURSDAY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT LOWER...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM THURSDAY...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE CHOICE COMES DOWN TO A TRADE OFF BETWEEN HUMIDITY AND WIND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 49. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO AROUND 4800 FT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 45 47 49 49 49 48 RH..............67 62 58 56 56 58 60 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 13 15 17 18 20 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 2 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............46 43 40 38 37 36 RH..............67 76 85 89 89 89 20 FT WIND......N 4 NE 3 NE 2 E 2 E 0 E 0 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4400 2000 200 500 500 200 TRANSPORT WIND..N 18 NE 12 NE 6 E 7 SE 5 SE 2 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 53. RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL BY 10 AM...INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............35 43 50 52 RH..............89 70 52 45 20 FT WIND......NE 1 E 1 W 2G5 S 4G5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 4600 6100 6200 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 2 S 3 W 6 SW 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110330.WHITE.01/PAH