FNUS75 KBOU 311135 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ARSENAL SEC 4...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 535 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...A STRONG JET ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH A DRY AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP DECREASE HUMIDITY. EXPECT THE LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES BEGINNING TO RECOVER BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CALM DOWN AND EVENTUALLY TURN INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NIGHT. HUMIDITIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. TOMORROW WE MAY APPROACH OR REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS YET AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ALMOST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HELPING TO KEEP A DRY AIRMASS. WILL HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....66. MIN HUMIDITY........13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 16-26 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45. MAX HUMIDITY........52%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 13-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 10600-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. MUCH COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ARSENAL SEC 4. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/31-04 34 0 45 47 SW 10 1 1041 NW 18 17105 P 03/31-05 34 0 45 48 W 10 1 797 NW 16 12006 P 03/31-06 44 0 44 47 W 11 20 2 1 NW47 553 NW 14 6907 P 03/31-07 44 0 44 46 W 12 1 1441 NW 16 23190 P 03/31-08 44 0 45 41 NW 13 1 2328 NW 18 39474 P 03/31-09 44 0 49 35 NW 13 20 2 1 NW41 3216 NW 20 55758 F 03/31-10 44 0 54 26 NW 15 1 4416 NW 23 93291 G 03/31-11 44 0 57 23 NW 18 1 5617 NW 25 130824 V 03/31-12 53 0 59 21 NW 21 31 2 1 NW46 6817 NW 29 168358 E 03/31-13 53 0 62 17 NW 23 1 7153 NW 28 173236 E 03/31-14 53 0 65 15 W 24 1 7490 NW 28 178115 E 03/31-15 53 0 66 13 W 24 37 2 1 NW43 7826 NW 26 182994 E 03/31-16 53 0 66 13 W 23 1 7662 NW 29 192065 E 03/31-17 53 0 65 13 NW 21 1 7499 NW 31 201136 E 03/31-18 37 0 65 14 NW 18 28 2 1 NW37 7335 NW 33 210207 E 03/31-19 37 0 63 17 NW 16 1 6476 NW 32 183277 E 03/31-20 37 0 60 21 W 14 1 5617 NW 32 156347 E 03/31-21 37 0 58 25 W 12 17 2 1 NW37 4758 NW 31 129416 V 03/31-22 37 0 56 29 W 12 1 4105 NW 31 112361 V 03/31-23 37 0 54 34 W 12 1 3451 NW 32 95305 G 04/01-00 16 0 53 37 W 12 17 2 1 NW28 2797 NW 32 78250 G 04/01-01 16 0 51 41 W 12 1 2413 W 30 63612 G 04/01-02 16 0 50 43 W 12 1 2028 W 26 48975 F 04/01-03 16 0 49 45 W 10 16 2 1 NW26 1644 W 24 34337 P 04/01-04 16 0 47 49 W 9 1 1206 W 20 23833 P 04/01-05 16 0 46 50 W 8 1 768 W 15 13328 P 04/01-06 33 0 45 51 W 7 7 2 1 NW36 322 W 9 2734 P 04/01-07 33 0 45 52 W 6 1 613 W 10 5400 P 04/01-08 33 0 46 48 SW 6 1 905 W 10 8066 P 04/01-09 33 0 51 40 S 6 6 2 1 NW44 1196 W 10 10733 P 04/01-10 33 0 56 33 SW 7 1 2670 W 13 37983 P 04/01-11 33 0 60 28 W 8 1 4143 NW 16 65233 G 04/01-12 33 0 63 24 NW 9 15 2 1 NW37 5616 NW 18 92483 G 04/01-13 33 0 67 21 NW 12 1 7465 NW 20 124996 V 04/01-14 33 0 70 19 NW 14 1 9314 NW 20 157508 E 04/01-15 50 0 71 17 NW 15 24 3 1 NW29 11162 NW 20 190020 E 04/01-16 50 0 72 16 NW 16 1 10842 NW 18 178154 E 04/01-17 50 0 70 17 NW 16 1 10521 NW 18 166288 E 04/01-18 46 0 69 17 N 15 24 3 1 W24 10201 NW 17 154422 E 04/01-19 46 0 66 20 N 13 1 7621 NW 15 110041 V 04/01-20 46 0 63 25 NE 8 1 5041 W 13 65660 G 04/01-21 46 0 60 29 E 6 6 3 1 NW23 2461 W 10 21279 P 04/01-22 46 0 57 32 SE 5 1 1756 W 8 14695 P 04/01-23 46 0 54 36 S 6 1 1050 SW 7 8111 P 04/02-00 46 0 52 37 S 6 6 3 1 W20 345 S 5 1527 P 04/02-01 46 0 50 40 S 6 1 481 SW 5 1986 P 04/02-02 46 0 48 42 S 5 1 618 NW 5 2445 P 04/02-03 46 0 47 45 S 5 5 2 1 W35 755 N 5 2904 P 04/02-04 46 0 44 50 S 3 1 812 N 5 2986 P 04/02-05 46 0 43 51 S 3 1 869 NW 5 3068 P 04/02-06 55 0 41 53 S 3 3 2 1 W40 925 NW 3 3150 P 04/02-07 55 0 40 55 S 3 1 1159 NW 3 3795 P 04/02-08 55 0 42 51 S 5 1 1393 W 3 4441 P 04/02-09 55 0 48 41 S 6 6 3 1 W44 1627 SW 3 5086 P 04/02-10 55 0 54 33 S 6 1 2467 SW 5 11295 P 04/02-11 55 0 59 28 SE 7 1 3308 SW 6 17505 P 04/02-12 55 0 64 24 SE 8 13 3 1 W44 4148 SW 7 23714 P 04/02-13 55 0 69 20 SE 9 1 5891 SW 10 67118 G 04/02-14 55 0 72 17 SE 9 1 7633 W 15 110522 V 04/02-15 55 0 74 16 SE 9 15 3 1 W45 9376 W 18 153925 E 04/02-16 55 0 75 16 SE 10 1 8399 W 18 135267 V 04/02-17 55 0 73 16 S 10 1 7423 W 18 116609 V 04/02-18 55 0 72 17 S 10 16 3 1 W41 6447 W 17 97951 G 04/02-19 55 0 70 19 S 10 1 4398 SW 15 66127 G 04/02-20 54 0 66 22 S 10 1 2349 SW 13 34303 P 04/02-21 54 0 63 24 S 10 17 3 1 W29 300 S 9 2479 P 04/02-22 54 0 61 27 S 10 1 285 S 10 2546 P 04/02-23 53 0 58 31 SW 10 1 269 SW 12 2613 P 04/03-00 53 0 56 34 SW 10 16 4 1 W33 254 SW 13 2680 P 04/03-01 55 0 54 38 SW 10 1 230 SW 12 2381 P 04/03-02 57 0 52 41 SW 9 1 207 SW 12 2082 P 04/03-03 60 0 51 45 SW 9 15 3 1 SW32 184 SW 12 1783 P 04/03-04 62 0 48 50 SW 9 1 169 SW 10 1571 P 04/03-05 64 0 47 51 SW 9 1 155 SW 10 1360 P 04/03-06 66 4 46 53 SW 9 15 2 1 SW48 140 SW 9 1148 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JASON FALLON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110331.ARSEN.01/BOU