FNUS73 KTOP 310917
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLINT HILLS COMPLEX RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
417 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THINK THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE BURN
SITE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME WESTERLY OR
VARIABLE TOWARDS 7 PM. BECAUSE THE BURN SITE IS EAST OF THE
TROUGH...DAY TIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT GOING TO BE
VERY DEEP. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KFT. TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR PRECIP AT THE
BURN SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM AND THERE COULD BE BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 53.
RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 63.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5
                    TO 8 MPH TOWARD EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /38300 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.MAX...GOOD
                    /48000 KNOT-FT/.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN 20
                    PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN...POOR /2000 KNOT-FT/.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX...EXCELLENT /108800 KNOT-FT/.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLTERS
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS CARRIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110331.FLINT.01/TOP