FNUS73 KEAX 011259 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 28...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 759 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON APRIL 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE BURN LOCATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MIXING COMMENCES. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED WILD FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. A HEIGHTENED FIRE THREAT MAY EXIST BY SUNDAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPS AND TEMPERATURES ROCKET UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE WILD FIRE DANGER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........30 28 26 23 20 17 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 59 60 60 61 60 RH..............43 38 35 33 33 34 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..18 18 20 18 17 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 25 30 30 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 1 TO 2 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........16 18 23 27 32 37 39 42 47 52 57 63 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............58 54 49 45 42 40 39 38 38 37 36 35 RH..............37 44 53 63 67 69 70 74 77 79 82 83 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..12 9 7 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........65 65 65 64 64 64 63 64 64 64 65 65 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............36 40 45 50 54 58 61 64 65 65 65 64 RH..............80 75 67 59 51 46 42 39 38 39 40 43 20 FT WIND DIR..NW N NE E E SE SE SE SE S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 6 6 6 8 12 13 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110401.UNIT2.02/EAX