FNUS75 KBOU 032004 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 200 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...FIRST WAVE OF WETTING SNOW AND RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE FIRE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO A DRYING NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF NO PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE SECOND SHOT OF PRECIPITATION MOVES DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. HOWEVER THIS NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH MOISTURE. BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING EVEN THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH PREVAILING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE COULD BECOME PRETTY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES........34-39 REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MIN HUMIDITY........54-63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 9-18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2300 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2100... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400... THEN GRADUAL CLEARING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-23. MAX HUMIDITY........88-94%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10-16 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1800 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-43. MIN HUMIDITY........25-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4200-5200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRYSTAL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/03-13 98 80 32 87 N 10 1 1692 W 12 19726 P 04/03-14 98 80 30 94 NE 10 1 2136 W 15 29564 P 04/03-15 98 87 28 100 NE 12 18 2 1 SW76 2581 NW 17 39403 P 04/03-16 98 87 27 100 NE 12 1 3153 NW 18 50918 F 04/03-17 98 87 26 100 NE 12 1 3724 NW 20 62433 G 04/03-18 100 67 26 100 NE 12 18 2 1 SW44 4296 NW 20 73948 G 04/03-19 100 67 26 99 E 12 1 4626 NW 22 88535 G 04/03-20 100 67 25 98 E 12 1 4957 NW 24 103121 V 04/03-21 100 67 24 97 E 12 18 2 1 W48 5287 NW 25 117707 V 04/03-22 100 67 24 95 NE 12 1 5262 NW 28 124447 V 04/03-23 100 67 23 94 NE 13 1 5237 NW 29 131186 V 04/04-00 100 17 22 91 N 13 21 3 1 W32 5212 NW 30 137925 V 04/04-01 72 17 21 92 N 14 1 5032 NW 31 134416 V 04/04-02 72 17 20 91 N 14 1 4853 NW 31 130908 V 04/04-03 72 17 20 88 NW 15 24 3 1 NW43 4673 NW 31 127399 V 04/04-04 72 17 19 84 NW 15 1 4648 NW 32 132123 V 04/04-05 72 17 19 78 W 15 1 4623 NW 35 136846 V 04/04-06 33 0 20 73 W 15 23 2 1 NW55 4116 NW 30 108226 V 04/04-07 33 0 20 72 W 15 1 4550 NW 35 138135 V 04/04-08 33 0 22 70 W 16 1 4984 NW 38 168043 E 04/04-09 33 0 25 64 W 17 26 2 1 NW76 5418 NW 43 197952 E 04/04-10 33 0 28 56 W 17 1 5570 NW 40 195425 E 04/04-11 33 0 31 50 W 17 1 5722 NW 39 192898 E 04/04-12 24 0 33 46 W 17 28 2 1 NW75 5874 NW 37 190370 E 04/04-13 24 0 35 41 W 17 1 5572 NW 35 170998 E 04/04-14 24 0 37 38 W 18 1 5271 NW 33 151626 E 04/04-15 24 0 37 36 W 18 30 2 1 NW76 4969 NW 31 132253 V 04/04-16 24 0 38 35 W 18 1 4303 W 31 114839 V 04/04-17 24 0 37 35 W 18 1 3637 W 31 97425 G 04/04-18 23 0 35 35 W 18 30 2 1 NW62 2971 W 31 80010 G 04/04-19 23 0 34 37 W 18 1 2411 W 31 64963 G 04/04-20 23 0 32 39 W 20 1 1850 W 31 49915 F 04/04-21 23 0 30 43 W 20 31 2 1 NW62 1289 W 31 34868 P 04/04-22 23 0 28 46 W 20 1 1046 W 31 28455 P 04/04-23 23 0 27 49 W 21 1 802 W 32 22042 P 04/05-00 23 0 27 51 W 21 33 2 1 NW59 559 W 32 15629 P 04/05-01 23 0 26 53 W 21 1 468 W 30 12394 P 04/05-02 23 0 25 55 W 20 1 376 W 26 9159 P 04/05-03 23 0 25 56 W 20 31 2 1 NW53 285 W 24 5924 P 04/05-04 23 0 25 57 W 21 1 262 W 25 5627 P 04/05-05 23 0 25 59 W 21 1 240 W 25 5330 P 04/05-06 27 0 25 60 W 22 35 3 1 NW55 217 W 26 5033 P 04/05-07 27 0 26 62 W 22 1 291 W 29 7562 P 04/05-08 27 0 30 54 W 21 1 365 W 31 10091 P 04/05-09 27 0 34 48 W 21 33 3 1 NW58 439 W 33 12621 P 04/05-10 27 0 39 41 W 21 1 1268 W 38 49179 F 04/05-11 27 0 44 36 W 21 1 2097 W 43 85737 G 04/05-12 27 0 47 33 W 21 33 3 1 W63 2926 W 48 122295 V 04/05-13 27 0 50 30 W 22 1 3445 W 48 144552 V 04/05-14 27 0 52 28 W 23 1 3964 W 48 166808 E 04/05-15 27 0 53 27 W 24 39 2 1 W69 4484 W 48 189065 E 04/05-16 27 0 53 27 W 23 1 4124 W 47 170108 E 04/05-17 27 0 51 29 W 22 1 3764 W 46 151152 E 04/05-18 23 0 49 31 W 21 33 2 1 W63 3404 W 45 132196 V 04/05-19 23 0 47 34 W 21 1 2445 W 41 93384 G 04/05-20 23 0 44 39 W 21 1 1486 W 38 54573 F 04/05-21 23 0 40 46 W 22 35 2 1 W61 528 W 35 15762 P 04/05-22 23 0 37 51 W 23 1 428 W 35 12705 P 04/05-23 23 0 36 55 W 23 1 328 W 33 9648 P 04/06-00 23 0 35 58 W 23 37 4 1 SW26 227 W 33 6591 P 04/06-01 23 0 33 60 W 22 1 215 W 31 5844 P 04/06-02 23 0 32 62 W 21 1 203 W 29 5096 P 04/06-03 23 0 32 62 W 18 30 4 1 SW21 191 W 26 4349 P 04/06-04 23 0 31 63 W 16 1 196 W 23 3930 P 04/06-05 23 0 32 61 W 14 1 202 W 21 3512 P 04/06-06 76 27 32 60 W 13 21 2 1 W37 208 W 17 3093 P 04/06-07 76 27 33 59 W 12 1 04/06-08 76 27 34 57 W 10 1 04/06-09 76 27 36 52 W 10 10 1 04/06-10 76 27 39 47 SW 10 1 04/06-11 76 27 42 44 SW 9 1 04/06-12 76 27 44 41 SW 9 9 1 04/06-13 76 27 46 40 SW 8 1 04/06-14 76 27 47 39 SW 7 1 04/06-15 76 27 47 39 SW 6 6 1 04/06-16 76 27 47 39 SW 5 1 04/06-17 76 27 46 42 SW 3 1 04/06-18 76 44 44 46 SW 2 2 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CAMBRIA ARMSTRONG REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110402.CRYST.02/BOU