FNUS73 KLSX 021656
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BATES HOLLOW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1145 CDT ON APRIL 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 60S AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

.THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST WIND AT 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 2 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON USING
                    0.3 ADJUSTMENT.
WIND...20 FT........WEST WIND 5 TO 6 MPH DURING EARLY AND MID
                    AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 16 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (12679 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH AT 4 MPH USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79.
RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 TO 8 MPH USING
                    ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDY. SOUTH WIND 14 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH UNTIL LATE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    21 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 43 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 47 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (24572 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TILLY
REQUESTED BY...TIM BRAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110402.BATES.01/LSX