FNUS73 KPAH 021310 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTERMILK HILL - TALBOTT HOLLOW BLOWDOWN UNIT 17...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 810 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE...20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MIXING HEIGHT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY THIS SATURDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE HEARTLAND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT PART OF THE MARK TWAIN AND SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST AREAS FROM MID-MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL WILDFIRE ISSUES FOR ANY UNSCHEDULED OR UNCONTROLLED BURNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 22 TO 31 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC MC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 53 57 59 61 64 64 63 62 RH..............49 44 39 37 35 30 30 32 35 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W SW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.7 5.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.28 26 24 23 22 21 18 17 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW TO VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-2100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 56 54 52 52 51 RH..............35 51 59 63 63 66 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4400 2900 1500 600 500 700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 8 SW 1 SW 0 SW 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 19 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW TO VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 60 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 62 72 76 RH..............74 58 44 43 20 FT WIND......SE 7G20 S 18G45 S 19G45 S 19G45 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2400 3300 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 25 SW 52 SW 63 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...HOOPER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110402.BUTTE.01/PAH