FNUS73 KPAH 020957 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR HANDY BURN UNIT F...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 457 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011 UPDATED FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST IS UPDATED FROM THE 420 PM ISSUANCE ON APRIL 1ST...TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT DOWNWARD CHANGES IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ...AS WELL CHANGES TO MIXING HEIGHT...HAINES INDEX AND TRANSPORT WINDS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE...20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MIXING HEIGHT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY THIS SATURDAY. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LARGER FUELS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE HEARTLAND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT PART OF THE MARK TWAIN AND SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST AREAS FROM MID-MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL WILDFIRE ISSUES FOR ANY UNSCHEDULED OR UNCONTROLLED BURNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 71. RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-7200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 13 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............55 59 63 66 68 70 71 69 68 RH..............53 42 36 33 31 27 27 30 32 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 5.1 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W W W SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.22 20 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...TIM PERREN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110402.HANDY.01/PAH