FNUS73 KPAH 021547 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR INAGHEH UNIT 4 5...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1047 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE...20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MIXING HEIGHT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY THIS SATURDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE HEARTLAND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT PART OF THE MARK TWAIN AND SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST AREAS FROM MID-MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL WILDFIRE ISSUES FOR ANY UNSCHEDULED OR UNCONTROLLED BURNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-7300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 32 MPH BECOMING WEST 14 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 57 59 61 63 64 63 62 RH..............45 40 37 35 31 30 32 35 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 6.1 7.0 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.25 24 22 21 18 17 15 14 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW TO VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-2400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 56 53 51 51 50 RH..............35 51 61 63 63 71 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4900 3200 1600 600 500 700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 6 SW 0 SW 0 SW 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW TO VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-3400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 59 TO 64 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 62 72 76 RH..............80 60 46 43 20 FT WIND......SE 7G20 S 17G45 S 18G45 S 18G45 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2500 3400 2500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 25 SW 49 SW 61 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...HOOPER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110402.INAGH.01/PAH