FNUS73 KLSX 032014
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLAIR...MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1430 CDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEING NEAR PEAK
HEATING...RH  VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30% AS MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT SOON AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 300
AM...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE BY 700 AM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........81 AT REQUEST...MAX 85.
RH..................42 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT
                    FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 22 MPH AT REQUEST...
                    OTHERWISE WINDY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 22 TO
                    24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 48 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (27133 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0100...THEN >25 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
                    OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WIND 13 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 36 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING DECREASING
                    TO 9 TO 11 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    OCCASIONAL RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
                    RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................>25 STRIKES UNTIL 1000...THEN NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WEST AROUND 3 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO
                    THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH USING ADJUSTMENT
                    FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........BREEZY. WEST WIND AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 11
                    TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 32 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (15632 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TILLY
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110403.BLAIR.01/LSX