FNUS74 KOUN 031156 CCA
FWSOUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR RIVER BOTTOM...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0705 CDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE DRYLINE AND THE VERY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35... BUT THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TODAY EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS WELL. AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN
WHICH CASE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT... SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY... AND THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH... BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 20 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 40 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3000
                    FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............67     69     77     82     84     84
RH..............81     78     62     55     49     48
20 FT WIND......S 20   S 23   S 25   S 29   S 30   S 30
20 FT WIND GUST.30     35     35     40     45     45
MIX HGT (FT)....1300   1900   2300   2700   3400   5100
MIX HGT (M).....400    580    700    820    1040   1550
TRANSPORT WIND..S 25   S 31   S 33   S 32   S 32   S 37
TRAN WIND (M/S).S 11   S 14   S 15   S 14   S 14   S 17

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 45 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN
                    THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900-3500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO
                    1400-3000 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING INCREASING TO 3600-3700 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 30 TO 40
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 20 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-8700 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DS
REQUESTED BY...BIA FIRE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110403.RIVER.01/OUN

CORRECTIONS IN THE DISCUSSION