FNUS73 KTOP 031140
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST FOR FORT RILEY COMPLEX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH AT IGNITION TIME WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRODUCING A MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVEL NEAR 30 PERCENT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...CRITICAL FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY
3 PM AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE SITE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.
IF THEY DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD EXIT THE SITE BY 7 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN ENDING BY 3 AM.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD EVENING. CHANCE OF
                    PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 83.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 28 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 23
                    TO 28 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH BECOMING
                    WEST 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    TOWARD EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /57100 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT /75700 KNOT-FT/.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40
                    PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.
RH..................MAX 61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN...EXCELLENT /78900 KNOT-FT/.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52.
RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX...EXCELLENT /294500 KNOT-FT/.

$$
FORECASTER...WHITMORE
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS CARRIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110403.FORTR.01/TOP