FNUS73 KEAX 141333 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR MARAIS DE CYGNES COMPLEX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 833 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 36. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE BRISK WINDS EXPECTED...WILD FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND RAINFALL SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-7400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 37 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........40 46 53 59 69 82 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 58 66 72 75 76 RH..............77 67 55 48 44 44 20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 14 SE 18 SE 21 SE 22 SE 21 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 25 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........92 94 96 97 93 89 WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............73 63 58 55 52 50 RH..............51 72 85 95 96 97 20 FT WIND......SE 18 SE 16 SE 14 SE 12 SE 10 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 3 3 3 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.60 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........85 86 88 91 93 97 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 49 51 53 54 54 RH..............94 86 77 70 66 63 20 FT WIND......S 9 S 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 10 W 16 20 FT WIND GUST.10 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 3 3 2 $$ FORECASTER...BEUSTERIEN REQUESTED BY...BRITTANY COLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110404.MARAI.01/EAX