FNUS72 KJAX 042253 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE KERR 8...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 653 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1841 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WIND AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. RH'S ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION WHICH HAS PROMPTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THERE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 15 MPH WHICH WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SITE SPECIFIC...TONIGHT... ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESSIVELY INVADE FORM THE WSW AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 4 AM FROM THE WSW. A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES FROM HE SSW WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY EVENING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 13 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....11. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........56 34 34 34 77 77 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............86 78 74 72 70 68 RH..............52 68 75 80 85 88 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 10 S 8 S 10 S 13 S 15 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4500 1500 1500 1000 600 900 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 14 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 16 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 DISPERSION INDX.68 26 26 8 11 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....53. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........77 92 92 92 52 52 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............67 66 69 71 72 72 RH..............88 87 74 63 55 48 20 FT WIND......S 15 SW 15 SW 14 W 15 NW 18 NW 16 20 FT WIND GUST. 20 20 25 25 20 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1200 1200 2000 2700 2700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 21 S 21 W 24 NW 24 NW 24 LAL.............3 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ENYEDI REQUESTED BY...MIKE WILLIAMS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110404.LAKEK.01/JAX