FNUS72 KJAX 031836 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR SRSP SV16...DEP SILVER RIVER STATE PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 20 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT GUSTS OVER 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH AND WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 87. RH..................83 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 4300-5300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....87. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............MISSING. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........53 33 33 31 34 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............66 78 84 87 87 RH..............83 60 48 44 44 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 3200 3200 5300 4300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 20 S 20 S 21 S 18 LVORI...........M M M M M DISPERSION INDX.14 26 65 88 71 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....10. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........34 43 43 43 66 66 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............85 79 74 72 69 68 RH..............46 57 71 79 84 86 20 FT WIND......S 10 SW 9 S 7 S 7 S 9 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4300 1500 1500 1000 500 500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 S 15 S 15 S 13 S 12 S 12 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 DISPERSION INDX.M M M M M M CHC OF PCPN (%).0 20 20 20 50 50 LAL.............1 2 2 2 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72. RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 18 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....49. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LVORI...............MISSING. $$ FORECASTER...PETERSON REQUESTED BY...CHRISTINE DORRIER APM TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110404.SRSPS.04/JAX