FNUS72 KJAX 041118 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR SRSP SV16 UPDATE...DEP SILVER RIVER STATE PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 718 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WIND AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LIMITED CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....109. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........37 37 28 28 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............72 81 86 86 RH..............67 50 43 43 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 12 S 14 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 3200 5300 5300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 23 S 28 S 28 DISPERSION INDX.14 65 88 88 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....14. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........28 32 32 32 70 70 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 78 74 71 69 68 RH..............47 58 69 76 82 86 20 FT WIND......S 12 SW 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4400 3600 3600 2000 500 500 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 23 SW 17 SW 17 SW 16 SW 16 SW 16 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 DISPERSION INDX.M M M M M M CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 50 50 LAL.............1 2 2 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ZAPPE REQUESTED BY...CHRISTINE DORRIER APM TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110404.SRSPS.05/JAX