FNUS75 KBOU 052306 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 505 PM MDT TUE APR 5 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASES AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW THOUGH SO NOT EXPECTING THE WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING....WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AS THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP THE CANYONS TO THE FIRE AREA. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING TOMORROW...BUT A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING ALL RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE IT BACK OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING ONLY INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 22-31 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-56 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1600-2200 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................2. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....47. MIN HUMIDITY........48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................26. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 2400. SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........93%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................32. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50. MIN HUMIDITY........39%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1800. CHANCE OF SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. BREEZY. WEST WINDS AROUND 27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRYSTAL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/05-16 23 0 59 16 W 23 39 1 5706 W 58 286968 E 04/05-17 40 0 58 14 W 30 1 5744 W 59 291592 E 04/05-18 40 0 57 13 W 25 45 2 1 W79 5782 W 59 296216 E 04/05-19 67 0 54 17 W 27 1 4842 W 54 236671 E 04/05-20 67 0 50 25 W 27 1 3903 W 51 177126 E 04/05-21 67 0 47 35 W 27 43 2 1 W85 2963 W 46 117581 V 04/05-22 67 0 45 43 W 28 1 2557 W 37 87917 G 04/05-23 67 0 37 64 W 21 1 2151 W 28 58254 F 04/06-00 82 9 37 67 NW 11 20 2 1 W82 1745 W 18 28591 P 04/06-01 82 9 36 70 NW 10 1 1672 W 17 25970 P 04/06-02 82 9 35 72 W 8 1 1598 W 17 23348 P 04/06-03 82 9 34 74 W 7 7 3 1 W67 1525 W 16 20727 P 04/06-04 82 9 33 77 W 7 1 1737 W 14 21228 P 04/06-05 82 9 33 74 W 5 1 1950 W 13 21730 P 04/06-06 79 19 32 73 W 5 7 2 1 W61 2162 W 12 22232 P 04/06-07 79 19 32 76 W 7 1 2598 W 13 28419 P 04/06-08 79 19 33 74 S 7 1 3034 SW 13 34605 P 04/06-09 79 19 37 67 S 6 6 2 1 W61 3470 SW 14 40792 F 04/06-10 79 19 40 59 S 7 1 3794 SW 14 47748 F 04/06-11 79 19 41 54 S 8 1 4117 W 15 54704 F 04/06-12 89 19 42 51 S 8 13 2 1 W64 4440 W 16 61660 G 04/06-13 89 19 44 49 S 8 1 4469 W 17 66569 G 04/06-14 89 50 45 48 S 7 1 4497 SW 18 71478 G 04/06-15 89 50 45 49 S 6 6 2 1 W59 4526 SW 20 76387 G 04/06-16 89 50 45 52 SW 6 1 4419 SW 17 66717 G 04/06-17 89 50 44 55 W 6 1 4311 SW 15 57046 F 04/06-18 83 56 43 61 W 6 6 2 1 W53 4203 SW 13 47375 F 04/06-19 83 56 39 72 W 6 1 3290 SW 12 35015 P 04/06-20 83 56 36 79 W 6 1 2377 SW 9 22655 P 04/06-21 83 56 35 83 W 6 6 2 1 W44 1464 SW 8 10294 P 04/06-22 83 56 34 85 W 6 1 1733 SW 8 11793 P 04/06-23 83 56 34 85 SW 6 1 1763 SW 7 11323 P 04/07-00 83 56 34 84 SW 6 6 2 1 SW36 1792 SW 7 10852 P 04/07-01 83 56 33 85 SW 6 1 1816 SW 7 10343 P 04/07-02 83 56 33 85 SW 5 1 1839 SW 6 9835 P 04/07-03 83 56 32 85 W 5 5 2 1 SW29 1862 SW 6 9327 P 04/07-04 83 56 31 87 SW 5 1 1820 SW 6 8731 P 04/07-05 83 56 31 86 SW 5 1 1777 SW 6 8136 P 04/07-06 68 13 31 85 SW 5 5 2 1 SW20 1735 SW 5 7541 P 04/07-07 68 13 31 93 SW 5 1 2363 SW 7 14449 P 04/07-08 68 13 32 92 S 6 1 2990 SW 8 21356 P 04/07-09 68 13 37 80 S 6 6 3 1 SW28 3618 W 9 28264 P 04/07-10 68 13 41 74 SW 6 1 4695 W 12 53140 F 04/07-11 68 13 44 70 SW 7 1 5771 W 15 78016 G 04/07-12 63 25 46 65 SW 7 7 3 1 SW25 6848 W 17 102893 V 04/07-13 63 25 48 56 SW 8 1 7219 W 17 107286 V 04/07-14 63 25 48 48 SW 8 1 7590 W 17 111679 V 04/07-15 63 25 49 42 SW 9 9 3 1 SW26 7961 SW 17 116072 V 04/07-16 63 25 50 39 SW 10 1 6887 SW 17 102229 V 04/07-17 63 25 48 42 S 12 1 5814 SW 17 88386 G 04/07-18 74 24 45 49 S 13 13 3 1 SW36 4741 SW 18 74543 G 04/07-19 74 24 40 59 S 15 1 3319 SW 18 52154 F 04/07-20 74 24 37 66 SW 16 1 1898 SW 18 29764 P 04/07-21 74 24 35 72 SW 17 28 3 1 SW33 476 SW 17 7375 P 04/07-22 74 24 34 78 SW 17 1 594 SW 18 9545 P 04/07-23 74 24 34 83 SW 16 1 711 SW 18 11714 P 04/08-00 74 24 34 85 SW 16 25 3 1 S39 828 SW 20 13884 P 04/08-01 74 24 33 86 SW 17 1 750 SW 21 13209 P 04/08-02 74 24 33 83 SW 18 1 671 SW 22 12534 P 04/08-03 74 24 32 81 SW 21 33 3 1 SW54 592 SW 23 11859 P 04/08-04 74 24 30 81 SW 24 1 585 SW 26 13239 P 04/08-05 74 24 30 76 SW 28 1 578 SW 29 14619 P 04/08-06 44 5 30 74 SW 29 46 4 1 SW56 571 SW 32 15998 P 04/08-07 44 5 30 74 SW 26 1 1674 SW 32 45040 F 04/08-08 44 5 32 67 SW 22 1 2776 SW 31 74082 G 04/08-09 44 5 40 51 SW 18 30 3 1 SW64 3879 SW 31 103123 V 04/08-10 44 5 45 43 SW 16 1 6006 SW 35 191299 E 04/08-11 44 5 49 38 SW 16 1 8132 SW 38 279475 E 04/08-12 44 5 52 35 S 15 24 2 1 SW78 10258 SW 41 367650 E 04/08-13 44 5 54 31 S 15 1 10935 SW 41 387836 E 04/08-14 44 5 55 28 SW 14 1 11611 SW 40 408022 E 04/08-15 44 5 55 26 SW 14 22 3 1 SW70 12288 SW 40 428208 E 04/08-16 44 5 57 24 S 13 1 11482 SW 36 361581 E 04/08-17 44 5 55 24 S 12 1 10676 S 31 294954 E 04/08-18 70 26 50 28 SE 10 10 3 1 SW62 9870 S 26 228327 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110405.CRYST.01/BOU