FNUS73 KLOT 051152 FWSLOT SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER LAKE...IDNR - FIRE HEADQUARTERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 652 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEEP MIXING TODAY AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER IT IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AS VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION SETS UP. THIS IN ADDITION TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE MIXING HEIGHTS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 53. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...DECREASING TO 6800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 22 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT /209600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /212000 KNOT-FT/. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........36 43 50 51 52 52 53 54 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 49 50 52 52 53 53 53 RH..............47 42 39 37 35 35 36 38 20FT WIND DIR...300 290 280 280 270 260 250 230 20FT SPEED(MPH).9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 20FT SPEED(KT)..8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 20FT GUST(MPH)..21 21 21 21 21 21 21 18 20FT GUST(KT)...18 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 MIX HGT (KFT)...8.4 8.6 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.3 6.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.290 290 280 280 270 260 250 230 TRANSP WIND SPD.28 28 26 28 28 26 24 22 VRATE KT-FT/1000210 212 206 205 199 187 168 142 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD BECOMING POOR LATE IN THE EVENING (111400-0 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........55 58 60 63 66 68 71 72 73 74 75 76 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............51 49 47 45 45 45 45 44 43 41 40 39 RH..............43 48 53 57 59 60 62 64 69 73 77 81 20FT WIND DIR...220 220 220 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 20FT SPEED(MPH).6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 20FT SPEED(KT)..6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 20FT GUST(MPH)..14 14 15 15 16 18 18 18 16 15 15 14 20FT GUST(KT)...12 12 13 13 14 16 16 16 14 13 13 12 MIX HGT (KFT)...6.3 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.220 220 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 TRANSP WIND SPD.20 21 21 23 25 26 28 28 25 23 22 20 CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VRATE KT-FT/1000111 72 33 5 0 2 9 8 7 5 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...DEUBELBEISS REQUESTED BY...DREW DAILY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110405.BEAVE.01/LOT