FNUS73 KPAH 051244 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PECK RANCH VALLEY UNIT...MISSOURI DEPT CONSERVATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 744 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AS SOUTHWEST BREEZES RETURN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO ADDED MOISTURE TO FUELS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN NEAR THE RIDGE TOP...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ONE TO TWO MILES PER HOUR HIGHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DIP ANOTHER FIVE TO SEVEN PERCENT LOWER THAN LISTED IN THIS FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS. FUEL MOISTURES NEAR BIG SPRINGS MISSOURI ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 14 PERCENT...BUT MAY FALL INTO THE EIGHT TO TEN PERCENT RANGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 63. RH..................20 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 17 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE DAY. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5100-6200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3100-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 61 RH..............19 22 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.26 28 CWR.............0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH DECREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............59 53 50 48 46 45 RH..............28 39 48 54 60 60 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1000 1000 1300 1100 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 29 SW 25 SW 22 SW 18 SW 20 SW 23 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72. RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1800-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 36 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 57 67 71 RH..............65 42 33 34 20 FT WIND......S 5G10 SW 9G20 SW 10G25 S 11G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 2500 3500 2700 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 33 S 36 SW 35 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SUSAN FARRINGTON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110405.PECKR.01/PAH