FNUS75 KBOU 062355 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 555 PM MDT WED APR 6 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FIRE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS THEN SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF SOME DOES REMAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. COULD SEE ANOTHER 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FIRE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE MORNING THEN A MORE UNSTABLE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY EAST OUT ON THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SPEED TOMORROW EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FIRE AREA...HOWEVER AS OF NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK DRY ENOUGH TO GET INTO WARNING CRITERIA. THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRE....BELIEVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRE WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. LIGHT RAIN UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........96%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....51. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30. MAX HUMIDITY........63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 16-26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12200-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1800. WARMER. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRYSTAL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/06-17 100 56 39 90 SE 7 1 3815 SW 15 51770 F 04/06-18 100 75 39 91 SE 6 8 2 1 W52 4236 SW 17 65560 G 04/06-19 100 75 38 96 S 6 1 3497 SW 16 50813 F 04/06-20 100 75 38 93 S 6 1 2758 SW 14 36066 P 04/06-21 100 75 37 90 SW 6 6 3 1 W40 2020 SW 13 21319 P 04/06-22 100 75 37 94 SW 6 1 1587 SW 10 15669 P 04/06-23 100 75 37 95 SW 6 1 1154 SW 9 10019 P 04/07-00 100 52 36 96 S 6 6 3 1 SW25 721 SW 7 4369 P 04/07-01 100 52 36 95 S 6 1 686 SW 6 3798 P 04/07-02 100 52 35 95 SW 5 1 651 SW 6 3226 P 04/07-03 100 52 34 94 SW 5 5 3 1 SW26 616 SW 5 2655 P 04/07-04 100 52 33 94 SW 5 1 615 SW 5 2668 P 04/07-05 100 52 32 94 W 5 1 613 W 5 2680 P 04/07-06 75 10 32 92 W 6 6 3 1 W31 612 W 5 2693 P 04/07-07 75 10 32 88 W 6 1 801 W 5 3473 P 04/07-08 75 10 33 73 SW 6 1 991 SW 5 4252 P 04/07-09 75 10 34 67 SW 7 7 3 1 SW25 1180 SW 5 5032 P 04/07-10 75 10 37 60 SW 7 1 2531 SW 7 22244 P 04/07-11 75 10 42 53 SW 8 1 3882 SW 10 39457 P 04/07-12 69 24 45 46 SW 9 14 3 2 SW23 5233 SW 13 56669 F 04/07-13 69 24 48 39 SW 9 2 6411 SW 14 77951 G 04/07-14 69 24 49 33 SW 12 2 7588 SW 15 99233 G 04/07-15 69 24 50 30 W 13 20 4 2 SW22 8766 SW 16 120515 V 04/07-16 69 24 50 30 SW 13 2 8138 SW 17 118152 V 04/07-17 69 24 50 31 SW 13 2 7510 SW 18 115790 V 04/07-18 66 21 50 33 SW 14 22 4 1 SW26 6882 SW 18 113428 V 04/07-19 66 21 48 36 SW 15 1 4687 SW 20 77323 G 04/07-20 66 21 45 41 SW 17 1 2493 SW 20 41219 F 04/07-21 66 21 37 57 SW 20 31 4 1 W31 299 SW 20 5114 P 04/07-22 66 21 36 59 SW 18 1 409 SW 20 6956 P 04/07-23 66 21 36 59 SW 17 1 518 SW 20 8799 P 04/08-00 64 9 36 58 SW 16 25 3 1 SW35 628 SW 20 10641 P 04/08-01 64 9 35 59 SW 18 1 585 SW 22 10729 P 04/08-02 64 9 34 59 SW 21 1 542 SW 23 10816 P 04/08-03 64 9 32 61 SW 23 37 4 1 S26 499 SW 25 10903 P 04/08-04 64 9 31 63 SW 23 1 441 SW 23 9188 P 04/08-05 64 9 31 62 SW 22 1 383 SW 22 7472 P 04/08-06 46 0 31 60 SW 21 33 5 1 S36 326 SW 21 5757 P 04/08-07 46 0 30 61 SW 20 1 1033 SW 23 22821 P 04/08-08 46 0 32 56 SW 20 1 1739 SW 24 39885 P 04/08-09 46 0 39 43 SW 18 30 3 1 SW54 2446 SW 26 56949 F 04/08-10 46 0 44 35 SW 17 1 4952 SW 29 135580 V 04/08-11 46 0 47 32 S 17 1 7459 SW 31 214211 E 04/08-12 46 0 50 28 S 16 25 3 1 SW53 9965 SW 33 292842 E 04/08-13 46 0 54 24 S 16 1 11136 SW 35 330712 E 04/08-14 46 0 57 21 S 15 1 12308 SW 35 368581 E 04/08-15 46 0 58 20 S 15 24 3 1 SW55 13479 SW 35 406450 E 04/08-16 46 0 60 18 S 15 1 12727 SW 36 389809 E 04/08-17 46 0 59 18 SW 15 1 11974 SW 36 373167 E 04/08-18 69 0 54 21 SW 15 24 3 1 SW69 11222 SW 37 356525 E 04/08-19 69 0 48 27 SW 15 1 7743 SW 30 241740 E 04/08-20 69 0 45 32 SW 16 1 4264 SW 24 126955 V 04/08-21 69 0 42 38 SW 16 25 3 1 SW70 786 SW 17 12170 P 04/08-22 69 0 41 41 SW 16 1 830 SW 18 12888 P 04/08-23 69 0 41 43 SW 16 1 875 SW 18 13606 P 04/09-00 69 0 41 44 SW 16 25 3 1 SW68 920 SW 18 14324 P 04/09-01 69 0 40 49 SW 15 1 792 SW 16 11403 P 04/09-02 69 0 39 55 SW 14 1 664 SW 14 8483 P 04/09-03 69 0 37 60 SW 13 13 3 1 SW56 537 SW 12 5562 P 04/09-04 69 0 35 61 SW 12 1 537 SW 12 5282 P 04/09-05 69 0 35 59 SW 12 1 538 SW 10 5002 P 04/09-06 71 21 35 57 SW 10 10 3 1 SW60 538 SW 10 4721 P 04/09-07 71 21 34 61 SW 9 1 1383 SW 12 17372 P 04/09-08 71 21 36 62 S 9 1 2228 S 14 30023 P 04/09-09 71 21 40 55 S 9 9 3 1 SW59 3073 S 16 42674 F 04/09-10 71 21 43 48 S 12 1 5146 S 18 95575 G 04/09-11 71 21 46 44 S 14 1 7218 S 22 148475 V 04/09-12 71 21 48 39 SE 16 25 2 1 SW63 9291 S 25 201376 E 04/09-13 71 21 50 34 S 16 1 10285 S 25 231605 E 04/09-14 71 21 52 31 S 15 1 11279 SW 26 261834 E 04/09-15 71 21 53 30 SW 14 22 4 1 SW44 12273 SW 28 292063 E 04/09-16 71 21 54 27 SW 15 1 11384 SW 25 253870 E 04/09-17 71 21 53 27 W 17 1 10495 SW 23 215677 E 04/09-18 83 37 49 31 W 20 31 3 1 S37 9606 SW 21 177484 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110406.CRYST.01/BOU