FNUS75 KGJT 052309
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR CANYON...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
509 PM MDT TUE APR 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON APRIL 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT WESTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE FIRST IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BURN SITE...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON A STRONGER
WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.

.WEDNESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-8.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR BY 1100...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 13 MPH INCREASING
                    TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL MID-EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    POOR (16000-28800 KNOT-FT). BETTER MIXING NEAR
                    SHOWERS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW MIXING
                    WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
                    POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100 WITH BETTER MIXING NEAR SHOWERS.
                    THEN THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 28 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110406.TAYLO.01/GJT