FNUS73 KJKL 061853
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHESTNUT CLIFFS...USDA - DANIEL BOONE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT WED APR 6 2011

THIS PRELIMINARY FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON
APRIL 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH DEW POINTS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT
FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER...BUT LESS IN THE
WAY OF WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FRIDAY AND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE.
POP.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........11     14     17     20     27     38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............61     56     53     51     49     47
RH..............32     41     50     61     65     69
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 8   SW 7   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
POP.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....47.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........45     50     57     62     66     71
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............48     57     64     69     72     72
RH..............73     62     48     37     37     39
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 3   SW 5   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5                    10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...GREIF
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110407.CHEST.01/JKL