FNUS73 KSGF 071504 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 4...MO DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1004 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF I-44. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. WIND SHIFT..........EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............68 71 74 RH..............53 52 51 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 8 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1700 2000 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 16 S 21 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 58. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 84 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 69 65 63 62 61 RH..............54 63 74 78 81 83 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 4 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 1700 800 500 500 500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 24 S 22 S 18 S 20 S 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 87. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. WIND SHIFT..........BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 62 71 79 84 87 RH..............84 82 67 53 45 40 20 FT WIND......S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....400 600 1100 1800 2200 2100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 25 SW 25 SW 22 SW 18 SW 17 S 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 6 6 6 6 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 64. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 60 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 43 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............85 80 74 73 71 68 68 69 75 82 85 88 RH..............44 52 62 66 71 78 78 76 65 52 44 38 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 6 S 8 S 10 S 13 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 1800 800 500 500 500 500 700 1400 2000 2900 3600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 29 S 36 SW 41 SW 41 SW 38 SW 32 SW 29 SW 25 SW 25 SW 26 S 30 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...GRIFFIN REQUESTED BY...TIM SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110407.UNIT4.01/SGF