FNUS75 KBOU 090153 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SODA CREEK FIRE...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 745 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY... .DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP WARM...WINDY...AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 8 PM THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY NOON SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO AROUND 12 PERCENT. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES IMPROVE AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER...MORE MOIST CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36. MAX HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-21 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 13-23 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...QUICKLY INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400-8400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 3200-4200 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2400...THEN POOR UNTIL 0400...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....37. MIN HUMIDITY........41%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 18-28 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHWEST 28-39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 7800-8800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SODA CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/08-19 51 0 51 16 SW 10 1 6135 SW 35 200846 E 04/08-20 51 0 49 19 SW 12 1 4605 S 30 132914 V 04/08-21 51 0 46 22 SW 12 18 3 1 S49 3075 S 24 64981 G 04/08-22 51 0 44 26 SW 13 1 2144 S 21 44463 F 04/08-23 51 0 41 30 SW 13 1 1214 S 17 23945 P 04/09-00 48 0 39 34 SW 14 20 3 1 S35 283 S 14 3427 P 04/09-01 48 0 39 35 SW 15 1 362 S 18 6323 P 04/09-02 48 0 38 38 SW 15 1 440 SW 23 9219 P 04/09-03 48 0 37 40 SW 16 22 3 1 SW46 519 SW 26 12115 P 04/09-04 48 0 36 42 SW 14 1 471 SW 24 10147 P 04/09-05 48 0 36 42 SW 12 1 422 SW 22 8178 P 04/09-06 48 0 36 43 SW 10 16 2 1 SW47 374 SW 20 6210 P 04/09-07 48 0 36 40 SW 9 1 1530 SW 23 39106 P 04/09-08 59 0 39 35 SW 10 1 2686 SW 28 72001 G 04/09-09 59 0 45 28 S 12 17 3 1 SW71 3842 SW 31 104896 V 04/09-10 59 0 48 25 S 13 1 4912 SW 32 138409 V 04/09-11 59 0 52 23 S 15 1 5982 S 33 171923 E 04/09-12 59 1 54 20 S 16 24 2 1 SW67 7053 S 33 205436 E 04/09-13 59 1 54 19 S 16 1 8232 S 36 263108 E 04/09-14 59 1 56 15 S 17 1 9412 S 39 320779 E 04/09-15 59 1 58 13 S 17 28 2 1 SW71 10591 SW 41 378451 E 04/09-16 59 1 60 12 S 20 1 9946 S 40 345245 E 04/09-17 59 1 57 14 S 22 1 9301 S 38 312039 E 04/09-18 52 29 55 16 S 23 35 2 1 SW64 8655 S 37 278834 E 04/09-19 52 29 47 25 S 22 1 7157 S 32 214158 E 04/09-20 52 29 41 33 SW 18 1 5659 SW 28 149482 V 04/09-21 52 29 39 39 SW 14 21 2 1 SW61 4161 SW 23 84807 G 04/09-22 52 29 36 48 W 13 1 3691 SW 20 66804 G 04/09-23 52 29 34 55 W 12 1 3298 SW 14 44071 F 04/10-00 100 51 33 60 W 10 16 2 1 S62 2904 SW 8 21338 P 04/10-01 100 51 31 65 W 8 1 3136 SW 9 26884 P 04/10-02 100 51 30 67 W 7 1 3367 SW 10 32430 P 04/10-03 100 51 30 68 W 7 7 2 1 S47 3599 SW 13 37976 P 04/10-04 100 51 29 72 W 8 1 3993 SW 13 46029 F 04/10-05 100 51 29 74 W 12 1 4387 W 14 54082 F 04/10-06 97 47 29 74 W 16 24 2 1 S17 4782 W 15 62136 G 04/10-07 97 47 29 69 W 22 1 4965 W 18 81587 G 04/10-08 97 47 30 62 W 28 1 5148 W 22 101038 V 04/10-09 97 47 31 55 W 32 48 3 1 S12 5331 NW 26 120489 V 04/10-10 97 47 32 52 NW 33 1 6371 NW 24 133960 V 04/10-11 97 47 34 51 NW 35 1 7412 NW 23 147431 V 04/10-12 85 34 35 51 NW 33 51 3 1 SW 3 8452 NW 22 160902 E 04/10-13 85 34 35 49 NW 33 1 8614 NW 20 147540 V 04/10-14 85 34 36 46 NW 32 1 8775 NW 17 134177 V 04/10-15 85 34 36 44 NW 32 48 4 1 E 5 8937 NW 16 120815 V 04/10-16 85 34 36 42 NW 33 1 8128 NW 17 120070 V 04/10-17 85 34 36 41 NW 36 1 7320 NW 20 119326 V 04/10-18 58 3 35 42 NW 35 52 3 1 NE 8 6512 NW 21 118581 V 04/10-19 58 3 34 42 NW 29 1 5668 NW 24 113866 V 04/10-20 58 3 33 45 NW 22 1 4825 NW 28 109150 V 04/10-21 58 3 31 49 NW 16 24 3 1 N22 3981 NW 30 104435 V 04/10-22 58 3 30 51 W 14 1 3418 NW 31 91966 G 04/10-23 58 3 29 53 W 14 1 2855 NW 32 79497 G 04/11-00 25 2 29 55 W 14 21 3 1 N35 2292 NW 33 67028 G 04/11-01 25 2 28 56 W 14 1 2165 NW 35 64105 G 04/11-02 25 2 28 58 W 14 1 2039 NW 35 61183 G 04/11-03 25 2 27 59 W 15 23 4 1 N31 1913 W 35 58261 F 04/11-04 25 2 27 61 W 16 1 1828 NW 33 53764 F 04/11-05 25 2 28 61 W 17 1 1743 NW 32 49268 F 04/11-06 7 8 28 62 W 17 26 4 1 N24 1658 NW 31 44772 F 04/11-07 7 8 29 62 W 16 1 1907 NW 28 43922 F 04/11-08 7 8 31 58 W 15 1 2155 NW 24 43071 F 04/11-09 7 8 35 52 W 13 20 2 1 N31 2404 NW 21 42221 F 04/11-10 7 8 39 46 W 10 1 3622 NW 16 40590 F 04/11-11 7 8 42 41 W 9 1 4839 NW 12 38958 P 04/11-12 21 8 45 37 W 7 7 2 1 NW17 6057 NW 7 37326 P 04/11-13 21 8 47 32 W 6 1 6463 W 8 42814 F 04/11-14 21 8 49 28 W 5 1 6870 W 8 48303 F 04/11-15 21 8 49 25 W 3 3 2 1 W16 7276 W 8 53791 F 04/11-16 21 8 50 23 SW 2 1 6686 SW 7 43235 F 04/11-17 21 8 49 23 SW 2 1 6097 SW 6 32679 P 04/11-18 23 4 47 25 SW 2 2 2 1 W29 5507 S 5 22123 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...M RUBENSTEIN OPS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110408.SODAC.01/BOU