FNUS74 KLZK 101434 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR WALKER 10...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 934 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MORNING SOUNDING FROM NORTH LITTLE ROCK SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...WITH THE BASE OF THE INVERSION RESTING AT ABOUT 5000 FT AGL OVER THE LITTLE ROCK AREA OR ROUGHLY 4300 FT AGL OVER THE BURN AREA. BELOW THE INVERSION...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY MOIST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NOTED OVER SCOTT COUNTY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT...BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO GO LATER THIS MORNING...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY SOAR TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS...RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS. THEY SHOULD HOLD GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE...BUT COULD BE A TAD HIGHER AS THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO 88 DEGREES. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INVERSION...BUT BY LATE MORNING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD BEGIN SURFACING AT THE BURN SITE. TONIGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE BURN SITE BY 1000 PM CDT...LIKELY SHIFTING EAST OF THERE BY 200-300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........81 AT IGNITION...MAX 88. RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 28 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 41 TO 44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 5900 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 82 84 86 87 87 86 RH..............56 50 46 42 42 41 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..20 21 21 21 21 21 16 20 FT WIND GUST.30 35 35 35 35 35 30 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S SW EYE LVL WND SPD.12 13 13 13 13 13 10 EYE LVL WND GST.15 18 18 18 18 18 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.43 43 43 44 43 43 43 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 33 TO 41 MPH BECOMING WEST 23 TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............85 78 73 70 67 65 RH..............44 53 61 65 70 73 20 FT WIND......SW 15 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 10 10 10 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.9 5 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.15 13 5 5 5 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.41 39 36 31 28 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 50 70 70 60 40 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND L SELF TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110410.WALKE.01/LZK