FNUS72 KJAX 110840
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK CREEK RAVINES PRESCRIBED BURN...ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD WARMTH WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 90S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES NEARING 35 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES NEARING 75 HAVE
PROMPTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH THE MAIN CONCERN OF
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........78 AT IGNITION...MAX 92.
RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1300 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 18
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....72.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........26     30     33     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     86     91     92
RH..............55     43     37     37
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 8   SW 12  SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1300   3700   6100   6100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6    SW 12  SW 16  SW 16
DISPERSION INDX.3      51     72     72
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1600 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 10
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........36     40     40     43     46     46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............89     82     76     73     70     68
RH..............41     56     68     76     81     88
20 FT WIND......SW 13  SW 10  SW 8   SW 7   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.20     15     15     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....5700   1600   1600   900    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18  W 17   W 17   SW 13  SW 8   SW 8
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION INDX.80     35     35     8      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...ZAPPE
REQUESTED BY...TERRI MASHOUR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110411.BLACK.01/JAX