FNUS75 KPUB 122111
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FORT LYON FIRE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG GRADIENT IN WINDS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE BURN SITE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WESTERN PORTIONS ARE LIKELY SEEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WHILE AREAS ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE ARE LIKELY SEEING SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 8 PM.  A FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE BURN SITE.  WINDS
WILL LIKELY TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO THE
NORTH.  A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH BY
8 AM.  NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR TO THE BURN SITE.
FLOW WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BY MID DAY WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

SMOKE DISPERSALS WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH POOR
DISPERSALS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT.  SMOKE DISPERSALS WILL LIKELY BE GOOD
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH POOR TO FAIR DISPERSALS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81F.
MIN HUMIDITY........4-9 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WESTERN FIRE PERIMETER WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
                    OF 4 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  EASTERN FIRE PERIMETER
                    WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
            GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH AFTER 2100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH AFTER 2400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 11 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........TURNING NORTH BY 0800 AT 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
            TO 30 MPH.  WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO EAST BY 1200
                    AT 8 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN NORTH
                    AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1200 WITH GOOD TO POOR AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...CHIEF AARON EVEATT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110411.FORTL.01/PUB