FNUS75 KBOU 121246 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 645 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...PROBABLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT FAIRLY WEAK...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM A STORM LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN OR SNOW AND MORE WIND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-61. MIN HUMIDITY........26-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-32. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-6 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTH 0-4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-57. MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 5200-6200 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRYSTAL FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/12-06 24 0 39 32 W 6 6 3 1 W46 213 W 5 862 P 04/12-07 24 0 40 31 W 5 1 331 SW 5 1165 P 04/12-08 24 0 42 31 S 3 1 449 SW 3 1468 P 04/12-09 40 0 44 30 S 2 2 3 1 SW38 567 S 3 1771 P 04/12-10 40 0 47 29 S 3 1 2026 S 7 22182 P 04/12-11 40 0 50 30 S 6 1 3485 SW 12 42593 F 04/12-12 59 12 52 31 S 7 7 2 1 SW36 4944 SW 15 63004 G 04/12-13 59 12 54 30 S 8 1 5928 SW 16 85344 G 04/12-14 59 12 55 29 S 9 1 6913 SW 17 107683 V 04/12-15 75 20 55 28 S 8 14 2 3 W37 7897 SW 18 130022 V 04/12-16 75 20 55 29 S 7 3 7747 SW 20 134873 V 04/12-17 75 20 54 32 S 3 3 7597 SW 21 139725 V 04/12-18 73 30 55 31 S 2 2 2 4 SW36 7447 SW 22 144577 V 04/12-19 73 30 53 36 SW 3 4 5102 W 17 97089 G 04/12-20 73 30 48 44 NW 5 4 2758 W 12 49602 F 04/12-21 73 30 44 53 N 6 6 3 4 SW33 413 W 6 2114 P 04/12-22 73 30 42 62 N 6 4 334 NW 5 1504 P 04/12-23 73 30 40 71 N 5 4 255 N 3 895 P 04/13-00 73 23 38 80 N 3 3 3 1 SW30 175 N 2 285 P 04/13-01 73 23 36 88 N 2 1 177 N 2 289 P 04/13-02 73 23 34 93 NE 2 1 178 N 2 294 P 04/13-03 71 23 33 96 NE 2 2 2 1 SW28 179 N 2 298 P 04/13-04 71 23 32 94 NE 2 1 180 CALM 245 P 04/13-05 71 23 31 90 NE 3 1 181 CALM 191 P 04/13-06 77 10 31 85 NE 3 3 2 1 W31 182 CALM 138 P 04/13-07 77 10 32 82 E 5 1 1203 S 3 6673 P 04/13-08 77 10 34 77 E 6 1 2225 SW 5 13209 P 04/13-09 77 10 44 55 E 7 7 2 1 W28 3246 W 7 19744 P 04/13-10 77 10 47 49 E 8 1 4321 SW 9 34882 P 04/13-11 77 10 49 46 E 9 1 4915 SW 10 47303 F 04/13-12 78 30 52 43 E 9 15 2 1 SW28 5509 SW 13 59724 F 04/13-13 78 30 54 40 SE 9 1 5774 SW 14 67794 G 04/13-14 78 30 55 38 SE 8 1 6040 SW 14 75864 G 04/13-15 78 30 55 38 SE 7 7 2 1 SW32 6306 SW 15 83934 G 04/13-16 78 30 55 37 SE 7 1 6125 S 16 86230 G 04/13-17 78 30 55 37 S 7 1 5945 S 17 88526 G 04/13-18 91 50 52 42 S 7 7 2 1 SW43 5764 S 18 90822 G 04/13-19 91 50 46 52 SE 7 1 4680 S 17 72926 G 04/13-20 91 50 41 65 SE 8 1 3596 S 17 55031 F 04/13-21 91 50 38 75 SE 8 13 2 1 S32 2511 S 17 37136 P 04/13-22 91 50 35 83 SE 7 1 2325 S 18 36073 P 04/13-23 91 50 35 86 SE 6 1 2138 SE 20 35010 P 04/14-00 76 30 35 84 SE 5 5 2 1 SW36 1951 SE 20 33947 P 04/14-01 76 30 34 85 SE 5 1 1811 SE 18 29997 P 04/14-02 76 30 35 79 SE 5 1 1670 S 17 26048 P 04/14-03 76 30 33 82 SE 6 6 2 1 SW37 1529 S 16 22098 P 04/14-04 76 30 30 88 E 7 1 1266 S 15 16958 P 04/14-05 76 30 29 86 N 8 1 1003 SW 13 11818 P 04/14-06 53 20 30 79 NW 8 13 2 1 W24 740 W 10 6677 P 04/14-07 53 20 30 76 NW 7 1 2205 W 15 38470 P 04/14-08 53 20 33 65 W 7 1 3671 W 18 70262 G 04/14-09 53 20 42 44 W 7 7 2 1 W22 5137 W 23 102054 V 04/14-10 53 20 47 36 W 9 1 7220 W 24 153578 E 04/14-11 53 20 49 32 NW 14 1 9303 W 25 205102 E 04/14-12 41 20 52 28 NW 18 30 2 1 W16 11386 W 26 256626 E 04/14-13 41 20 54 24 NW 24 1 12095 W 25 261825 E 04/14-14 41 20 56 21 NW 29 1 12804 NW 24 267025 E 04/14-15 41 20 56 21 W 33 53 2 1 NW 7 13513 NW 23 272224 E 04/14-16 41 20 56 20 W 36 1 12669 NW 24 260692 E 04/14-17 41 20 56 19 W 36 1 11825 W 24 249159 E 04/14-18 20 5 53 21 W 35 55 2 1 S 2 10981 W 25 237627 E 04/14-19 20 5 48 26 W 33 1 9279 W 29 223048 E 04/14-20 20 5 43 33 W 30 1 7577 NW 33 208469 E 04/14-21 20 5 40 38 W 26 43 2 1 CALM 5874 NW 38 193890 E 04/14-22 20 5 38 43 W 22 1 5658 NW 36 178008 E 04/14-23 20 5 37 45 W 16 1 5442 NW 35 162126 E 04/15-00 20 5 38 45 W 13 21 2 1 NW 7 5226 NW 32 146244 V 04/15-01 19 5 37 43 W 13 1 5320 NW 35 159590 E 04/15-02 18 5 38 38 W 15 1 5415 NW 37 172935 E 04/15-03 16 5 35 39 W 17 28 2 1 NW10 5509 NW 39 186281 E 04/15-04 14 5 33 40 W 18 1 5546 NW 41 200805 E 04/15-05 13 5 32 39 W 20 1 5583 NW 45 215328 E 04/15-06 12 5 33 38 W 20 31 2 1 NW13 5620 NW 47 229852 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...JAMES A WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110412.CRYST.01/BOU