FNUS73 KEAX 131357 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR MINE CREEK...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 857 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........16 16 17 17 21 26 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 56 65 72 75 76 RH..............77 63 47 40 36 35 20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 8 S 10 S 12 S 12 SE 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........30 27 22 19 28 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 65 61 58 55 53 RH..............39 52 61 66 73 79 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....6 6 5 5 5 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.60 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 41 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........47 56 68 77 82 88 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 57 64 70 73 74 RH..............84 76 64 58 53 53 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 13 SE 16 SE 21 SE 21 SE 20 20 FT WIND GUST. 15 25 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 6 6 4 $$ FORECASTER...BEUSTERIEN REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110412.MINEC.01/EAX