FNUS75 KPUB 130157 AAA
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FORT LYON FIRE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
757 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE BURN AREA A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY
THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS MAIN COLD FRONT
AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO AROUND 30 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WITH THE FRONT
WILL HIT THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 600 AM AND 800 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT AND WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER
HUMIDITY AIR TO THE BURN SITE FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(32 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
                    THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FEET UNTIL 2000...THEN DROPPING TO
                    1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 11 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
                    NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
                    AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(64 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS 12-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN EAST 10-20 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 4500 FEET
                    AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...CHIEF AARON EVEATT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110412.FORTL.01/PUB