FNUS73 KAPX 130912 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR FAIRVIEW OPENINGS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 512 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN...WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE IN SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FIRE SITE JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP JUST AFTER. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ONLY KICK OFF SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................20 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400-6300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 53 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 64 64 RH..............20 20 21 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 8 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 600 700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH MID TO LATE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........50 50 79 79 79 60 60 60 82 82 82 81 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RN RN RN RN TEMP............62 59 56 53 49 46 44 42 40 39 39 37 RH..............23 28 32 39 48 55 60 62 64 67 64 70 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 700 700 600 400 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 47. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........81 83 83 46 17 17 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............33 31 37 42 45 47 RH..............82 85 59 44 36 32 20 FT WIND......N 6 N 7 NE 9 NE 10 NE 10 NE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 2 3 3 4 5 SMOKE DISP......200 300 400 400 500 500 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...TOM VIERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110413.FAIRV.01/APX