FNUS73 KDDC 141133 FWSDDC SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST LSM...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 633 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0525 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW CROSSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM THE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 MPH BEFORE BECOMING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO NESS CITY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. RAIN OR SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69. RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5200-6700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 6100-7500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO WEST AROUND 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........49 50 51 52 66 71 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............42 47 58 65 69 65 RH..............83 87 64 55 48 50 20 FT WIND......N 5 NE 8 NE 10 N 11 W 12 W 14 20 FT WIND GUST. 15 20 25 25 30 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 5 NE 8 NE 10 N 11 W 12 W 14 WIND GUST.. 15 20 25 25 30 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 19 TO 25 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS 19 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 45 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................60 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 36 TO 45 MPH INCREASING TO 46 TO 52 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........74 78 81 83 85 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 46 43 42 41 40 RH..............71 79 82 79 76 76 20 FT WIND......W 15 W 15 W 16 W 17 W 18 NW 19 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 40 45 EYE LEVEL WIND..W 15 W 15 W 16 W 17 W 18 NW 19 WIND GUST..35 35 35 35 40 45 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 27 TO 34 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 27 TO 34 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH INCREASING TO 55 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 56 TO 61 MPH INCREASING TO 64 TO 69 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........90 86 82 78 75 69 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............38 41 44 47 49 49 RH..............79 70 62 56 52 50 20 FT WIND......NW 22 NW 26 NW 27 NW 25 NW 25 NW 25 20 FT WIND GUST.45 50 55 50 50 50 EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 22 NW 26 NW 27 NW 25 NW 25 NW 25 WIND GUST..45 50 55 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BURGERT REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM WALN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110414.WESTL.01/DDC