FNUS73 KLSX 141508
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LEWIS HOLLOW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS TODAYWILL CAUSE THE WIND TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    5600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (21132 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 0100...THEN >25 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 22 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (10636 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...CVKING
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110414.LEWIS.02/LSX