FNUS74 KLZK 141541 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR PINEY C...U S FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1041 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE. DEW POINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT RH VALUES WILL STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL MEAN THAT DANGER WILL INCREASE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH AROUND 28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6400 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............71 73 75 76 77 76 RH..............48 46 45 45 45 48 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 16 16 15 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 25 25 25 20 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.8 9 10 10 9 8 EYE LVL WND GST.8 13 13 13 13 10 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 28 28 28 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3500 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............75 71 64 60 57 55 RH..............50 60 75 86 90 98 20 FT WIND......SE 12 SE 8 S 7 S 8 S 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE S S S SW EYE LVL WND SPD.7 5 4 5 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.10 8 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.26 24 22 18 16 15 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 70 80 70 60 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 26 TO 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 5600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............53 55 59 59 RH..............100 87 66 56 20 FT WIND......SW 7G10 SW 12G20 W 16G30 W 16G30 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW W W EYE LVL WND SPD.4 7 10 10 EYE LVL WND GST.5 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.16 21 26 32 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 30 20 $$ FORECASTER...J LEWIS REQUESTED BY...HEATH THOMAS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110414.PINEY.01/LZK