FNUS74 KLZK 141344 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR RORIE SOUTH...U.S.FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 844 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE. DEW POINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT RH VALUES WILL STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL MEAN THAT DANGER WILL INCREASE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6700 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............72 74 75 75 75 75 75 RH..............53 46 44 44 45 47 49 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND GST.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.21 22 23 24 25 25 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 14 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3200 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 69 64 62 60 58 RH..............49 60 69 75 81 87 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.6 5 5 5 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.10 8 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.25 24 21 17 15 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 50 70 80 80 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 31 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6200 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............55 58 60 59 RH..............96 79 65 60 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.4 5 8 10 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 13 15 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.14 17 22 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 30 20 $$ FORECASTER...J LEWIS REQUESTED BY...SCOTT OSBORNE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110414.RORIE.01/LZK